I'm Mark Pack, author of both Ways To Win An Election and Bad News: what the Pound shaken as UK election poll puts Johnson outright win in doubt. UK results: Conservatives win majority Results of the general election some were calling for Jeremy Corbyn to resign after exit polls poll put Labour on. The forthcoming UK election remains hard to call, despite polls indicating a clear Tory majority. This is partly because recent experience tells us that the polls.
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Kantar Public. Ipsos MORI. You do now. I prefer the leader ratings they have been closer to predicting winners of elections for sometime now, both Labour and the Lib Dems are making headway there.
The Tories are already uncomfortably for them in negative terrority. Has anybody done research on historical voting using eg a panel based approach that enables a representative set of voters to be tracked across several GEs?
By understanding how the total vote breaks down among these fractions may in time help us to be much more predictive about actual outcomes.
Whilst the data supplied is not easily to analyse in terms of trends etc, some general conclusions may be drawn. One is that whilst Conservative and Labour numbers are converging, the LibDem number remains fairly stable.
Also the polling for these results preceded the latest development in the Corbyn affair, which may result in a lot of internal Labour infighting and thus a number of disgruntled Labour members looking elsewhere.
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Please try different keywords. Part of it was probably the disruptive effect Brexit had upon traditional party ties, part of it perhaps a general change to the way the Conservative party has presented itself and its message.
Much will simply be to the passage of time — those old mining identities can only sustain for so long once the mines have closed, the miners have passed on, the old sites regenerated and replaced by new build housing estates.
Here is where it gets complicated, and why one should be cautious about throwing all those gains in together.
Lewis Baston has written about this well previously. Some of them were in perennial marginals — places like Darlington, Stockton South, Keighley or Lincoln that have been competitive for decades and just happen to be in the North or the Midlands.
The write up and full tables are here do go and have a read, as there is lots of detail I have not explored below. That translates into a swing of 7.
In comparison the national polls conducted over the same period showed on average a Conservative lead of 1 point, a swing of 5.
On the face of it, that suggests the Conservatives are doing marginally worse in these seats than in the country as a whole. We should not put too much confidence on whether the Conservatives are doing a couple of percentage points better or worse in an area based on a single poll.
Are there different patterns at work in those traditional marginal seats to those former mining and industrial seats that have been part of the bigger red-wall sea-change.
The question people tend to ask on the back of polls like this is whether the Tories need to worry unduly about keeping these seats in their column, and whether Labour can win them back.
In that context, it is probably too simplistic to look at them as a single lump. These are marginal seats, elections will be always be won and lost in the marginal seats.
It may be that the more vulnerable Tory seats next time round are actually some more affluent seats with high proportions of graduates.